Jolliffe, Stephenson (eds.). Forecast Verification.. A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science (Wiley,2003)(ISBN 0471497592)(247s)_PGp_.pdf

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Forecast Verification
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Forecast Verification
A Practitioner’s Guide in
Atmospheric Science
Editedby
IAN T. JOLLIFFE
UniversityofAberdeen
and
DAVID B. STEPHENSON
UniversityofReading
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Copyright
2003 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern G ate, Chichester,
West Sussex PO19 8SQ, England
Telephone ( 44) 1243 779777
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John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ,
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This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to
the subject matter covered. It is sold on the understanding that the Publisher is not engaged in
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the services of a competent professional should be sought.
O t her W iley E dit orial O ffices
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Forecast verification: a practitioner’s guide in atmospheric science / edited by Ian T.
Jolliffe and David B. Stephenson.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-471-49759-2 (alk. paper)
1. Weather forecasting–Statistical methods–Evaluation. I. Jolliffe, I. T. II. Stephenson,
D avid B.
QC996.5.F 677 2003
551.63–dc21
2002192424
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN 0-471-49759-2
Typeset in 10.5/13pt Times New Roman by Kolam Information Services Pvt. Ltd,
Pondicherry, India
Printed and bound in Great Britain by Antony Rowe Ltd, Chippenham, Wiltshire
This book is printed on acid-free paper responsibly manufactured from sustainable forestry in
which at least two trees are planted for each one used for paper production.
Contents
L ist of contributors
ix
Preface
xi
Chapter 1
Introduction
1
I an T . J olliffe and D avid B . S t ephenson
1.1 A Brief History and Current Practice
1
1
1.1.1 History
3
1.1.2 Current Practice
1.2 R ea sons for F oreca st Verifica tion and its Benefits
4
1.3 T ypes of F oreca st s a nd Verifica tion D a ta
6
1.4 Scores, Skill, and Value
7
8
1. 4. 1 Sk ill Sco r es
9
1. 4. 2 A r t ificia l Sk ill
10
1. 4. 3 St a t ist ica l Sign ifica n ce
11
1.4.4 Value Added
1.5 Data Quality and Other Practical Considerations
11
Chapter 2
Basic Concepts
13
Jacqueline M . Potts
2.1 Introduction
13
2.2 Types of Predictand
13
2.3 Exploratory Methods
14
2.4 Numerical Descriptive Measures
19
2.5 Probability, Random Variables and Expectations
23
2.6 Joint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions
24
2.7 Accuracy, Association and Skill
26
2.8 Properties of Scoring Rules
27
2. 9 Ver ifica tion as a R egression Problem
27
2.10 The M urphy–Winkler F ramework
29
2.11 D imensionalit y of t he Verifica tion Problem
36
Chapter 3
Binary Events
37
Ian B. Mason
3.1 Introduction
37
3. 2 Ver ifica tion M easures
39
41
3.2.1 Some Basic Descriptive Statistics
45
3.2.2 Performance Measures
3. 3 Ver ifica tion of Binary F oreca st s: Theoretica l
Considerations
56
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